التنبؤ بسرعة الرياح الشهرية في منطقة سبها جنوب غرب ليبيا للفترة 2023-1972 باستخدام النموذج الموسمي الهجين SARIMA-GARCH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65540/jar.v30i2.1560الكلمات المفتاحية:
سرعة الرياح، النموذج الهجين، سلاسل زمنية، عنقودية التقلبات، أبعاد التنمية المستدامةالملخص
يشهد العالم تحولاً جذرياً في أنظمة الطاقة نتيجة للتغيرات المناخية المتسارعة، وتبرز طاقة الرياح كواحدة من أكثر مصادر الطاقة المتجددة كفاءة ونضجاً من الناحية التكنولوجية، غير ان التقلبات الزمنية في سرعة الرياح تمثل تحدياً جوهرياً لعملية التنبؤ. يهدف البحث إلى بناء نموذج إحصائي هجين (SARIMA‑GARCH) للتنبؤ بسرعة الرياح الشهرية في منطقة سبها (جنوب غرب ليبيا) خلال الفترة 1972–2023، حيث يعالج نموذج SARIMA البنية الموسمية والارتباط الخطي، بينما يتولى نموذج GARCH نمذجة التقلبات العنقودية وعدم ثبات التباين في البواقي. اعتمدت الدراسة على بيانات شهرية من محطة أرصاد سبها (624 مشاهدة). بعد اختبار استقرارية السلسلة والتأكد من وجود تأثير ARCH في بواقي نموذجSARIMA، تم تقدير النموذج الهجين SARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 - GARCH(1,1)وقد أظهر تقييم الأداء خارج العينة (2022‑2023) تفوقاً واضحاً للنموذج الهجين، إذ تحسنت معايير المعلومات (AIC) بنسبة 6%، وانخفضت أخطاء التنبؤ (MAPE) بنسبة 29% مقارنة بالنموذج الموسمي التقليدي، وجميع معاملات النموذج معنوية إحصائياً، مما يؤكد استقرار التباين الشرطي واستمرارية التقلبات..
تشير التنبؤات للأعوام 2024–2027 إلى ان متوسط سرعة الرياح السنوية يتراوح بين 9.38 و9.73 م/ث، مع استمرار النمط الموسمي (ذروة ربيعية) واتساع تدريجي لفترات الثقة مع امتداد الأفق الزمني. وبناءً عليه وتؤكد هذه النتائج كفاءة النموذج الهجين في تحسين دقة التنبؤات بسرعة الرياح، بما يدعم تخطيط وتشغيل مشروعات طاقة الرياح في جنوب ليبيا، مع التوصية بتوسيع نطاق الدراسة مستقبلاً ليشمل محطات أرصاد إضافية وإدخال متغيرات مناخية مساعدة.
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